International cosmodynamic weatherforecast May 2023 + 25. Solar Sun Spot Cycle- special SEP report



   

INTERNATIONAL COSMODYNAMIC WEATHERFORECAST/25. Solar Sun Spot Cycle- special SEP report

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site status: please note. this site needs still some technical improvement and development,  I only can learn by doing . 

 


scroll down to my  Solar cycle 25 special event report 

BREAKING NEWS- 20230508 new solar proton event-

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1. cosmodynamic weather forecast

MAY 2023

click here for 2023 ( under construction)

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completed  - last update. 20230502


Astronomical Constellations May 01:










14.5... >

R- 15.5..> 5.5.. > 16.5. >
15.5.>





2.5. R


22.3.


         
 
               


               



05. 05/ 18  UTC 19. 5. 16 UTC 17.05.- 21 UTC  UTC 9.5. - 10 UTC



22.5.- 15 UTC 26.5.- 3  UTC 11.5.- 6  UTC none











 
links to all other  months >  (will be   constructed  in 2023)      ...   
                 
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE*
                    green= seeding* brown= plant*
Date  Day Begin (UTC)  Tendency  Temperatures  Air Precipitation   Wind dynamics warnings watering gardening
01 MO 1)
 

 

 
      plantin
g  >
02 TU          
03 WE
 
 
     
 
04 TH  
     
 
05 FR 10
 
     
 
06 SA  17
 
       
07 SU            
08 MO 23  





 
   
09 TU                 seeding after 0 UTC 

10 WE                  
11 TH 00        
12 FR          
13 SA 20      
Sun into Taurus> 
14 SU  19        
15 MO
     
16 TU            
17 WE 13
         
18 TH            
19 FR 09          
20 SA            
21 SU
     
 
22 MO  04      
 
23 TU
     
 
24 WE 211        
25 TH
         
26 FR  06          
27 SA            
28 SU
       

29 MO  04       ??   
30 TU
     
 
31 WE        
 
      on SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE opposite. seeding time = planting time, upward node =downward node- upper soltice = low soltice


part II

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                     < (SDO realtime ) the Sun now (SOHO realtime ) >



Solar cycle 25

-special-  Solar Proton events 

20230516- (about at )17:50 UTC :  another minor SPE:(below treshold)




source:AR 13309
-----------------------
M 7.1 - SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS - 2023-05-20 01:51:00 UTC

M 7.7 - SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS - 2023-05-19 02:57:05 UTC


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2023- 05-09

SOLAR PARTICLE EVENT
 INVOLVED ACTIVE SOLAR REGION:13296
very active 14 major C flares 7 M flares on 20230509

Region 13296 [N16W07] developed in the southern central spot section with resulted in polarity
 intermixing. Long duration M flares were recorded towards the end of the day and one or
 
two Earth directed halo CMEs were observed soon afterwards. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 21:05 UTC
 
 MAJOR X- RAY EVENTS -20230507 M 1.5 at 22:34- M 1.6 at 23:22- (LDE. CME)
-20230509/18:58 : M4.2/1B- 
full halo CME, proton eventstrong type IV radio sweep
-20230509 M6.5/moderate type II radio sweep


 
 EARTH DIRECTED CME EVENTS: May 7: Halo CMEs were observed after the M1 long duration events in AR 13296
 towards the end of the day. The CMEs could reach Earth on May 10 and cause
unsettled to major storm conditons.
 
 ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME  
 CME IMPACT SIZE ON GOES  
   
 SEP:  
(1)PROTON IMPACT BEGIN 20230508- after 1 UTC ongoing 
 MAXIMUMEXCEEDING TRESHOLD OF 10 PFU AFTER 12  maximum 36,4 pfu)
AND ON 20230510  after 2. SEP on 20230509  WITH MAX 80,6 PFU AFTER 0 UTC
 
 (2)ELECTRON ACCUMULATION  
 MAXIMUM
 
 MEASUREMENTS BACK TO NORMAL:  
   
 SOLAR MAP SOLEN. INFO FLARE IMAGE SOHO- SDO 
 



 



 
 SEP IMAGE STEREO AHEAD NASA D RAP- particle absorption- 
 



 
20230511





 
 PROTON ARRIVAL (GOES)  ACTIVE ELECTRONS (PHASE II) 
 







 none yet 
 TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS: 
 REGIONS WITH THEORETIC POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER MAGMATIC HOTSPOT ACTIVITIES AND EARTHQUAKES :

 
  Main SEP IMPACT ZONES / LONGITUDES :

east and west of/ main impact at  180° UTC
geomagnetic longitude/impact longitudes
gradually reaching from Western Pacific and USA
Westwards to Eurasia- until the Atlantic,
minot effects could occure on
the CANARY ISLAND and ICELAND

 
 
 RELATED: SOLAR OBSERVATORIES 
GOES- Proton FLUXSOLAR TERRESTRIAL RELATIONS OBSERVATORY (STEREO) 
GOES Electron fluxSDO 
GOES X ray solar flaresSoHO 
GOES GEOMAGNETIC  FIELDREGULARY SPECIAL REPORTS 
Advanced Composition Explorer Solen.info 
NASA D RAP- particle absorptionNASA SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORT 
RADIO SWEEPS/ BLACKOUTSkkkk 
CME EVOLUTIONPOLAR LIGHTS 


 COINCIDENT TERRESTRIAL EVENT

VOLCANIC EVENT
DATE  20230522

NAME OF VOLCANO  ETNA 
REGION 
Eurasia 
GOOGLE EARTH ETNA 
ALERT LEVEL

REPORTS

-----------------------------------------------------------------


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VOLCANIC EVENT
DATE 

NAME OF VOLCANO 
REGION 
ON MAP 
GOOGLE EARTH 
ALERT LEVEL

REPORTS

-----------------------------------------------------------------




MAJOR OR EXTRAORDINARY EARTHQUAKES

M 5.4 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2023-05-11 23:19:41 UTC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
STORMS

20230511- ongoing- TROPICAL CYCLONE MOCHA






symbols used in this forecast:


         
exceptions
           
planetary
       
               
                       
constellations
     
                 
weathersymbols
     
     
     
                 


gardening various
     

months
   

























































































































































































































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